Financial Viability Analysis of the Maamba Phase 2 Coal-Fired Power Project

This report assesses the financial viability and bankability of the proposed MaambaEnergy Limited (Maamba) Phase 2 coal-fired power project in Zambia. Using the Model for Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans (FINPLAN), the analysis evaluates the project’s resilience under three key sensitivity variables: i. Construction period delaysii. Tariff fluctuations, andiii. Plant utilization rates.Key findings indicate that the project is financially viable under optimal conditions: a construction period of 3-4 years, a tariff of at least ZMW1.1/kWh, and a high plant utilization rate above 80%. However, the project exhibits significant sensitivity to adverse changes. Construction delays beyond 4 years severely erode Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). A 20% reduction in tariff cuts the NPV by over 50%, and the project becomes unprofitable (NPV