Energizing Education: Examining the Financial Analysis of The University of Abuja Solar Mini Grid Project Using the FINPLAN Methodology

This study assesses the financial feasibility of the proposed University of Abuja solar hybrid mini-grid employing the Model for Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans (FINPLAN), with particular emphasis on tariff and exchange rate risks. The findings demonstrate that the project is financially sustainable under the 70:30 debt–equity structure, yielding a substantial positive net present value of ₦19-20 billion, and an internal rate of return of 24-25%, exceeding standard infrastructure benchmarks at the baseline tariff of ₦68.35 per kWh. Sensitivity analysis reveals that tariffs are the most critical factor for project sustainability, with a break-even point of approximately ₦38 per kWh. Exchange rate depreciation reduces project value (i.e., as it weakens from ₦1,480/USD to ₦2,380/USD, the NPV declines steadily (₦20 billion to below ₦2 billion). The study recommends maintaining tariffs that are both cost-reflective and predictable, expanding concessional and local-currency financing to reduce foreign exchange risk, and increasing the use of solar hybrid mini-grids through the Energizing Education Programme. Additional suggestions include promoting local assembly of renewable energy components and enhancing financial risk management to improve project bankability and sustainability. These approaches aim to reduce diesel dependence, lower operational costs, and support Nigeria’s energy transition objectives.