A Phenomenological Success Index in the Era of Generative AI

We propose a minimal phenomenological model describing success in highly competitive societies under the widespread use of generative artificial intelligence. Assuming that AI amplifies individual capability in proportion to socially required ability, the success condition reduces to a simple balance between individual leverage and social expectation. We analyze the time evolution of this success index, derive necessary conditions for sustained success, and show that even in the AI era, persistent success is structurally impossible in rapidly maturing fields. The model explains the proliferation of short-lived successes and the inevitability of strategic withdrawal.