Sustainable Green Fuel Production via Carbon Capture and Green Hydrogen for a Low-Carbon Energy Future

Indonesia’s path to deep decarbonization requires low‑carbon liquid fuels that leverage today’s infrastructure while cutting lifecycle emissions. This paper proposes an integrated pathway to produce e‑fuels by coupling point‑source carbon capture with renewable‑powered green hydrogen, synthesizing methanol and Fischer–Tropsch fuels. We aim to: (1) estimate Indonesia’s near‑term potential for CO₂ capture from power and industry; (2) benchmark levelized costs for green hydrogen and e‑fuels under local resource conditions; and (3) outline a staged deployment roadmap. Methods combine a structured literature review (2020–2025), screening of peer‑reviewed techno‑economic studies and international agency reports, and synthesis of ranges for capture rates, hydrogen cost, and fuel yields. Data are normalized to common assumptions—capacity factor, electricity carbon intensity, and discount rate—to enable comparison. Results indicate that retrofittable point sources in Java–Bali and Sumatra could supply tens of MtCO₂ per year, seeding early e‑fuel hubs. With electrolyzer learning and high‑CF renewables, levelized green hydrogen could reach ~USD 2–3/kg by 2030, enabling e‑methanol to approach competitiveness on a lifecycle‑adjusted basis. Analysis supports a roadmap: pilot methanol using captured CO₂ and dedicated renewables; then scale to Fischer–Tropsch liquids linked to industrial clusters and CO₂ transport and storage. Key risks are high up‑front capital, policy uncertainty, and verifying net emissions; yet combining low‑cost renewables, improved capture rates, and bankable offtake improves economics. Coupling carbon capture with green hydrogen can deliver investable e‑fuel projects this decade if supported by enabling regulation, creditworthy offtake, and targeted incentives. Policy should prioritize hub‑based deployment, accelerated renewables, and standards that verify real emissions reductions.