Ecological Homeostasis and Zika Virus Transmission in South-West Asia

AbstractBackground: Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in South-West Asia represents a complexadaptive system where conventional outbreak suppression strategies have demonstratedlimited long-term efficacy. Current vector control approaches, predicated on reactivechemical suppression, produce oscillatory instability rather than sustainable diseasereduction.Methods: We developed an integrated mathematical model incorporating four interactingregulatory layers: environmental carrying capacity, vector population dynamics, humanepidemiological feedback, and institutional response delays. The model examines stabilityconditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria under various intervention scenarios.Results: Analysis reveals that effective reproduction number (Re) stability dependscritically on environmental carrying capacity (K) and institutional response delay (tau), withminimal sensitivity to adult mosquito kill rates alone. Integrated homeostasis interventionstargeting feedback restoration achieve stable low-transmission equilibria, whilesuppression-only strategies exhibit periodic outbreak resurgence.Conclusions: Durable ZIKV control emerges through ecological homeostasis restorationrather than vector elimination. Policy frameworks should prioritise environmentalregulation, accelerated epidemiological feedback, and institutional integration overintensified suppression. Stability, not eradication, represents both the realistic and ethicallyappropriate objective for arbovirus management in urban ecosystems.