FORECASTING THE POPULATION GROWTH OF THE PHILIPPINES: TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS

This research aims to forecast the population growth of the Philippines by analyzing historical trends from 1990 to 2020 and projecting future demographic patterns through 2040. Utilizing a quantitative-descriptive research design, the study constructed a dynamic balance model employing Linear Regression, Exponential Smoothing, and ARIMA (1,1,1) time-series analysis. Data were sourced from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) and validated through stationarity testing and backcasting. Results indicate a consistent upward trend with an average year-on-year growth of 1.71%, although the pace of growth is gradually decelerating. Projections suggest the national population will reach approximately 125.07 million by 2030 and 141.08 million by 2040. The analysis further highlights a significant shift toward an aging society, with the elderly population expected to nearly double by 2055. These findings underscore the need for proactive policy-making in education, healthcare, and infrastructure to manage the "dual demographic challenge" of a large total population alongside an aging workforce. Ultimately, this study provides data-driven insights essential for leveraging the demographic dividend and ensuring sustainable national development.