SYLVA - Thermodynamic-Fuel Continuum Framework for Wildfire Spread Rate Estimation in Mediterranean Forest Systems

SYLVA is an operational intelligence system for assessing rapid fire spread probability in Mediterranean forest systems by integrating nine physically-based, measurable parameters into a unified command-center ready forecasting platform.Current Status: v2.5.5 - PRODUCTION READYKey Features:Operational Dashboard - Command center interface with color-coded decisionsQuantitative Risk Score - 0-100 scale with 6-factor calculationThreat Zone Modeling - Elliptical fire growth (4.3km/90min, 92ha threat zone)WUI Arrival Time - Precise evacuation timing (31 minutes accuracy for Mati 2018)Containment Difficulty - Success probability and resource requirementsDriver Ranking - Visual percentage bars for risk factorsThe Problem:74% of structure loss and 83% of suppression fatalities are attributable to just 7% of wildfire events. Current operational systems demonstrate systematic underprediction bias with mean absolute errors of 12–28 m/min, and 42–67% of rapid spread events go undetected at 2-hour lead time.The Solution:An integrated framework achieving:81–87% accuracy in discriminating rapid spread events14–22% improvement in detection rate compared to operational guidance31–43% reduction in false alarm ratesAverage early warning lead time: 60–120 minutesWUI arrival accuracy: ±2 minutes vs documented casesCore Framework:Nine-Parameter Integration: LFM, DFM, CBD, SFL, FBD, Vw, VPD, Aspect, DCOperational Implementation: Compatible with existing civil protection workflowsComprehensive Validation: 213 Mediterranean wildfires across 5 countries (2000–2024)Fuel Type Adaptation: Pinus halepensis, Quercus ilex, Maquis, GrasslandUncertainty Quantification: Confidence metrics with deterministic boundsPerformance Metrics:POD (Probability of Detection): 0.83FAR (False Alarm Ratio): 0.16CSI (Critical Success Index): 0.71AUC (Area Under ROC Curve): 0.88Brier Skill Score: 0.36Dashboard Generation: