Scapegoating as a System-Level Instability Response

This paper develops a structural model of scapegoating in healthcare as a system-level instability response. Rather than approaching scapegoating primarily as an ethical failure or cultural deviation, it is analysed here as a predictable form of attribution compression that can occur when complex adaptive systems exceed their tolerance for uncertainty. Drawing on psychoanalytic group theory, anthropological accounts of crisis stabilisation, and critical transition theory in complex systems, the paper identifies a structural sequence in which distributed causal dynamics collapse into singularised blame attribution under stress. The argument does not equate biological and organisational systems mechanistically; instead, it proposes a formal analogy at the level of system behaviour under instability. The analysis distinguishes clearly between accountability and attribution compression and situates scapegoating within a broader framework of instability regulation in complex systems. The paper extends prior systems-dynamic work on misalignment between biological processes and healthcare decision models into the domain of organisational behaviour. This is a conceptual systems paper. It does not replace ethical analysis nor deny individual responsibility. Its purpose is to clarify structural conditions under which distributed causality becomes compressed into simplified explanatory narratives. Keywords: complex adaptive systems; scapegoating; attribution compression; healthcare systems; instability; critical transitions; accountability; organisational resilience