Non-Markovian Hazard Suppression in Solar Active Regions: Evidence for Thermodynamic Mediation

This study reports statistically significant short-term suppression in solar flare hazard following major flares (≥ M5.0) in actively driven solar active regions. Using a marked point-process framework, we detect an inhibition parameter β ≈ 0.103, corresponding to an approximately 10% reduction in conditional flare hazard. The suppression follows an exponential recovery timescale τ = 3.0 ± 0.5 hours. The inhibition term improves predictive log-likelihood by ~7.5 bits relative to memoryless baseline models and remains significant under competition with a self-exciting (Hawkes) kernel. A strong monotonic association is observed between the hazard recovery time (T₉₅) and independently derived soft X-ray cooling times (Γ) (Spearman ρ = 0.95, n = 15; bootstrap 95% CI [0.84, 0.99]; permutation p < 10⁻⁴). No significant suppression is detected in a decaying control region (AR 11162), indicating that the phenomenon is conditional on active magnetic driving. The results are consistent with thermodynamic mediation of post-flare instability thresholds and establish measurable non-Markovian dynamics in solar flare occurrence. This Zenodo archive contains the manuscript source, summary PDF, and data template used in the analysis.