Systemic Fragility in Planetary AI Infrastructures: A Probabilistic Concentration Threshold Model

This paper introduces the Centralized Super-Platform Dominance Infrastructure (CSPDI™) framework, a probabilistic and multiplicative model for quantifying structural concentration risk in planetary-scale AI and critical infrastructure ecosystems. The study integrates satellite coverage, AI inference power, data centralization, and infrastructure dependency into a unified dominance index designed to evaluate systemic fragility thresholds. Using Monte Carlo simulation, cascading failure modeling, and behavioral inference quantification, the paper demonstrates that systemic collapse probability remains statistically low under most conditions, but regional cascade risk increases significantly once structural concentration thresholds are exceeded. The research contributes a novel anti-fragility optimization model based on redundancy, segmentation, diversification, and transparency parameters. By shifting governance focus from reactive regulation to structural topology measurement, the CSPDI™ framework provides a quantitative foundation for planetary infrastructure resilience in the age of large-scale AI convergence. Keywords: systemic risk, AI infrastructure, platform concentration, satellite networks, cascading failures, probabilistic modeling, anti-fragility, digital sovereignty, infrastructure governance.