The Middle Corridor and Brazil: Strategic Energy Convergence (2026–2035)

This technical report analyzes the strategic convergence between the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), commonly known as the Middle Corridor, and Brazil’s refining and agricultural security needs between 2026 and 2035. The study evaluates the technical substitutability of KEBCO (Kazakhstan Export Blend Crude Oil) for Urals crude, logistical stability between CPC and BTC routes, the strategic consolidation of Ceyhan as a Mediterranean export hub, and implications for Brazilian refineries and fertilizer imports. Scenario modeling indicates that deeper trans-Caspian integration and tariff harmonization could structurally reposition the Eurasia–Atlantic energy axis. The report concludes that the Middle Corridor represents not merely an alternative transit route, but a structural vector of multipolar energy integration with direct implications for Brazil’s supply security and strategic autonomy.