ENERGY PRICE SHOCKS AND THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF POLISH MANUFACTURING SMES: A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS (2023–2025)

Energy price volatility has become a core stress test for manufacturing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Europe. This article examines whether energy price shocks translated into a higher risk of market exit among Polish manufacturing SMEs during 2023–2025, and how this risk interacted with balance-sheet resilience and export orientation. The study is designed as a survival analysis, where the outcome is time-to-exit over a 36‑month window, and covariates capture energy-cost exposure alongside firm-level controls (leverage, liquidity, size, profitability, and exports) plus sector fixed effects. The empirical strategy uses Kaplan–Meier comparisons and a Cox proportional hazards specification, allowing the baseline hazard to remain unspecified. Results indicate that greater energy-shock exposure is associated with a meaningfully higher exit hazard, while liquidity and firm size reduce hazard and export orientation provides an additional buffer. These findings support a forward-looking view: policies that accelerate energy efficiency adoption and stabilize input-cost risk for SMEs can strengthen survival odds without relying on permanent price controls.