Detecting Strategic Drift Before Outcome Failure: A Longitudinal Governance Diagnostic

Drift becomes visible long before performance declines—if you know where to look. By the time performance drops, drift is already entrenched. This paper shows how misalignment can be detected earlier—inside decision processes, not outcomes. Using longitudinal analysis, it traces how interpretive shifts propagate through governance artefacts and allocation decisions. The result is a diagnostic approach that identifies drift while it is still reversible. About the Coherence ProgrammeThe Coherence Programme studies why institutions drift despite appearing aligned. It shows that decisions are made not on intent itself, but on how intent is translated into criteria, metrics, and allocation rules. Using the Operating Spine, the programme traces how purpose becomes action across governance layers, making drift and coherence directly observable within decision systems. The research applies to public institutions, capital allocation, and AI-mediated environments, where the durability of decision rules determines long-term institutional reliability.Programme citation: Mertens, R. E. U. (2026). The Coherence Programme: A Conceptual Overview and Entry Point to the Research Programme. Resources: Coherence Programme OSF repository and https://thecoherenceprogramme.org Version 1.0: First public release (Preprint).Version 1.01: Terminology harmonisation and minor structural refinements to improve consistency across the Coherence Programme. No changes to the theoretical framework, constructs, or research design.Version 1.02: Minor conceptual clarifications, consistency improvements, reviewer-informed refinements, and editorial updates across the programme.