Multi-dimensional Verification of Large-scale Cultural Infrastructure Investment in a Depopulating Society: An Objective Record of the Sendai New Music Hall Project (Total Project Cost: 64.6 Billion JPY)

This study evaluates the validity of the proposed Sendai New Music Hall project (total investment: 64.6 billion JPY; 2,000 seats) from the dual perspectives of financial management and Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). Utilizing a standardized analytical framework powered by AI models (Google Gemini and NotebookLM), the research integrates demographic projections from the Regional Economy Society Analyzing System (RESAS) up to 2050 with primary field data on local facility utilization. The analysis reveals a significant negative Net Present Value (NPV) exceeding 50 billion JPY under a standard 4% social discount rate, drastically overshooting the academic “survival threshold” for cultural facilities (estimated at 3–5 billion JPY). Furthermore, the study identifies structural inefficiencies, including low weekday occupancy (10–15%) and a critical discrepancy between citizen willingness-to-pay (500 JPY) and actual production costs. This report serves as an objective record to facilitate a transition toward a “strategic intelligence model” for sustainable urban management, highlighting a continuous fiscal burden on future generations equivalent to three “Big Macs” per person per month. Additional note for citizen science:This PDF is a Zenodo-registered version of the article published on note, publicly released for citizen science purposes.