Critical Mineral Scarcity and Systemic Economic Risk: The Copper and Silver Supply Crisis in an Era of AI-Driven Demand

This report examines the structural supply crisis affecting copper and silver markets and its cascading consequences across strategic global sectors. Drawing on analysis from authoritative sources including Wood Mackenzie, BloombergNEF, JPMorgan, the World Economic Forum, the International Energy Agency, and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, it documents a systemic material supply crisis driven by an unprecedented demand surge from artificial intelligence infrastructure, the clean energy transition, and electric vehicle adoption. The report details how copper deficits are projected to reach 6–7.8 million tonnes cumulatively by 2035, and how silver prices surged by over 130% in 2025 amid acute physical shortages and tightening Chinese export controls effective January 2026. It further analyses the cascading failures these shortages are causing in healthcare — including medical device and drug supply disruptions — and in critical energy infrastructure, where procurement lead times for large power transformers have extended to two to three years. The report concludes that the cross-sectoral competition for a finite pool of critical minerals represents a profound systemic risk, forcing difficult trade-offs between national priorities in AI, clean energy, healthcare, and defense.