Heavy precipitation in February 2026 Brazil Floods likely influenced by both human-driven climate change and natural variability

Depressions similar to those producing the February 2026 Brazil floods are up to +6 mm/day (15–20%) wetter than they were in the past. This event was driven by very rare meteorological conditions. We mostly ascribe the heavy precipitation during the February 2026 Brazil floods to human-driven climate change, while natural climate variability likely played a modest role.