Pathways to cost-optimal and net-zero emissions irrigation in the United States

Usage Notes: This repository contains the data and preprocessing code supporting the figures and analyses presented in the article 'Pathways to cost-optimal and net-zero emissions irrigation in the United States'. The repository includes input and output data for all figures, provided in inputs_outputs.xlsx, as well as the data preprocessing scripts used to prepare the inputs for the optimization model ZEN-Garden. The scripts cover water demand processing, energy carrier data, solar PV capacity factors, and water pump conversion factors at the U.S. county level. Users are encouraged to refer to the article and the README for additional context on the datasets and preprocessing steps. Abstract: Irrigated agriculture enhances crop yields and climate resilience but also contributes to CO₂ emissions through energy use. Here, we apply energy system modelling to evaluate cost-emission trade-offs in electrified irrigation across the United States, integrating hourly energy production and historical water demand. We find that current practices are highly inefficient, leading to 23% ($ 0.89 billion) higher costs and 39% (3.8 Mt CO2) more CO2 emissions compared to the cost-optimal scenario, primarily due to reliance on diesel water pumps and limited solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption. Under cost-optimal conditions, 6.6 GW of solar PV is deployed, and electric water pump installation capacity increase by 14% (11.3 106 m3h-1) relative to current levels. Emission reductions of 85% are achievable at marginal additional cost (+0.7%), whereas reaching net-zero roughly doubles system costs relative to business-as-usual. Renewable-powered electrified irrigation can thus deliver substantial, low-cost emission reductions but requires operational adaptation to solar-based systems. Authors: Jara Späte1,2, Stefano Mingolla1,3, Lorenzo Rosa1,* 1 Biosphere Sciences and Engineering, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, 94305, United States of America. 2 Institute of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland 3 School of Science and Technology, IE University, Cardenal Zúñiga, 12, 40003 Segovia, Spain *Corresponding Author - Email address: lrosa@carnegiescience.edu