Global Warming is ENSO, not CO₂: Evidence of UV-B Solar Modulation (1610–2025)

This paper presents an alternative hypothesis regarding the causes of global temperature increase since the pre-industrial era. Contrary to the prevailing consensus attributing warming primarily to anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, this work demonstrates that the observed thermal variability results from (1) the internal oscillation of the climate system (ENSO) and (2) modulation by ultraviolet solar radiation (UV-B). Through a rigorous three-stage statistical protocol that removes oceanic noise, a significant correlation between solar activity and temperature is revealed (r = 0.824, 13.48σ), while the relationship with CO₂ is reduced to a shared monotonic trend without direct physical coupling (p = 0.34). An energy-transduction mechanism via collision-induced UV-B absorption by molecular oxygen O₂ is proposed, yielding a volumetric heating efficiency 22 times greater than that of CO₂ in the 15 μm band. These findings call for a reattribution of observed climate change toward natural internal variability and solar forcing.