ΔΦ Coupling-Sensitive Precursor: Survival of a Pre-Registered Adversarial Falsification Protocol

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Authors: Tom Mitchell
Cited by: 0

Abstract

This record documents a pre-registered adversarial falsification test of a revised precursor diagnostic incorporating an explicit cross-channel coupling term.The original scalar formulation of Π(t) was previously falsified due to lack of specificity. The revised Π′(t) was evaluated under the identical frozen-threshold protocol using:• Brownian motion null systems• True coupled onset systems• Block-shuffle surrogate tests• Subcritical controlsThe revised diagnostic shows early detection exclusively in the coupled system while suppressing false positives in all null and control conditions, thereby passing the predefined falsification criteria.The accompanying Colab notebook provides a fully reproducible implementation:Unified ΔΦ test environment (Colab):https://share.google/lmP24lWxzKxWgHMQ6⁠�This entry serves as a transparent computational benchmark and methodological correction following the earlier negative result.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Ecosystem dynamics and resilience Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis Chaos control and synchronization

Publication details

Journal / source
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Publication date
1 March 2026
Language
EN