Tournament-Based Performance Evaluation and Systematic Misallocation: Why Forced Ranking Produces Random Outcomes and What to Do Instead
Abstract
Comprehensive treatment of forced ranking failure. Version 2.0: Merged with former Paper 19 (BTL Mirror Supplement). Extended sensitivity analysis: 54,000 Monte Carlo trials across 4 distributions × 5 team sizes × 6 noise levels × 3 tier counts × 5 BTL comparison levels. Overall FR error 0.494. Cost-of-error: $10M bonus pool creates $11.76M in organizational cost. BTL alternative yields 22% cost reduction. HR analytics literature integrated.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Sports Analytics and Performance
AI and HR Technologies
Human Resource and Talent Management
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 1 March 2026
- Language
- EN
- Document type
- Preprint