Natural Gas Supply and Electricity Generation Efficiency: Plant-Level Evidence from Nigeria's Largest Thermal Power Facility

This study analyzes the influence of natural gas supply dynamics on electricity generation efficiency utilizing operating data from Egbin Power Plant, Nigeria's largest gas-fired thermal power facility. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression were employed to assess the link between gas-supply variables (including nomination, allocation, and actual off take quantities) and power output over a thirty-month period. The findings indicate that electricity generation is highly and statistically significantly influenced by actual fuel consumption; actual gas offtake is almost universally positively linked with power output (r 0.968) and serves as the primary predictor in the regression model. The gas coefficient is predicted to be between 3.9 and 4.3, indicating that an increase in natural gas supply (1 MMSCFD) results in an approximate increase of 4 MW in electricity output. Conversely, the volumes of nomination and allocation are rendered statistically insignificant in the context of actual offtake. The findings suggest that generating variability is affected by fuel delivery constraints rather than limitations in installed capacity. This article presents actual data at the plant level about fuel productivity in a fuel-constrained electricity market and illustrates the economic importance of reliability in gas supply.