Analysis of the impact of inflation on real estate project financing in Lagos State Southwest Nigeria

This study investigates the effects of inflation on real estate project financing in Lagos, Southwest Nigeria, with particular focus on cost estimation, budgeting practices, availability and conditions of financing, stakeholder challenges, and adaptive strategies for mitigating inflation-induced risks. Using data collected from 300 project stakeholders, including developers, contractors, financiers, and public officials. The study provides empirical insights into how inflation influences the planning and execution of capital projects in Nigeria’s commercial hub. The findings reveal that inflation significantly affects project financing by increasing cost overruns, undermining the reliability of cost estimation, and distorting budget forecasting. Financial institutions have responded to persistent inflationary pressures and currency instability by imposing stricter lending conditions, higher interest rates, and shorter loan tenures, thereby limiting access to affordable long-term project finance. Inflation-related challenges, including exchange rate volatility, absence of inflation-indexed loan products, and delays in government funding, have contributed to project slowdowns and, in some cases, abandonment. Although stakeholders adopt coping mechanisms such as cost-plus contracting, recurrent budget adjustments, and contingency provisions, these measures remain largely reactive and insufficient to offset systemic macroeconomic risks. The study concludes that inflation constitutes a significant threat to the sustainability and effectiveness of real estate project financing in Southwest Nigeria. It therefore recommends coordinated financial reforms, institutional strengthening, and macroeconomic policy stabilization to minimize cost escalation, financing gaps, and project delivery inefficiencies that hinder infrastructural development.