The Grand Convergence Model: A Scenario-Based Systems Framework for Structural Risk in Advanced Economies During the AI-Automation Era (Policy-Strengthened Edition)

This paper provides the empirical scaffolding for the Grand Convergence Model (Ryder, 2025), a systems framework analysing structural instability in advanced economies during the AI-automation era. The study identifies observable indicators for each of the model’s six measurable stress domains — automation and AI penetration, demographic contraction, financial fragility, environmental stress, geopolitical fragmentation, and social cohesion — using publicly available OECD, IMF, World Bank, and related datasets. Building on these indicators, the paper introduces the Composite Convergence Index (CCI), a weighted monitoring instrument designed to track the accumulation of cross-domain structural pressures over time. The CCI aggregates normalised domain indicators into a single index ranging from 0–100, providing an interpretable signal of convergence trajectory and threshold proximity. The paper also develops a typology of irreversibility at the Permanent Wilting Point (PWP), distinguishing demographic, institutional, and cultural recovery horizons and their respective policy implications. This typology strengthens the structural case for doctrine-level responses designed for post-labour economic conditions, including the Engagement Credit Economy (ECE). Finally, the paper situates the Grand Convergence framework within its intellectual lineage — drawing on Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, the systems dynamics tradition of Limits to Growth, and Acemoglu’s automation economics — while clarifying the model’s original contribution: a multi-domain convergence framework integrating structural pressures into a unified threshold architecture. This working paper demonstrates that partial empirical calibration of the Grand Convergence Model is feasible using publicly available data and outlines a research programme for full calibration, backtesting, and institutional monitoring of the Composite Convergence Index. Companion paper to: The Grand Convergence Model — Working Paper No. 1 The original version of this framework was first published in November 2025. The present document represents a revised and expanded edition. Ryder, J.F. (2025).The Grand Convergence Model: A Scenario-Based Systems Framework for Structural Risk in Advanced Economies During the AI-Automation Era.Zenodo. https://zenodo.org/records/18859921 The purpose of the Grand Convergence Model is not to predict collapse, but to provide a systems-level analytical map for policymakers, researchers, and institutions navigating the structural transition toward post-labour economic conditions. AI Collaboration Note: Portions of the analytical development, editing, and structural refinement of this working paper were conducted with the assistance of AI language models. All conceptual design, interpretation, and final authorship remain the responsibility of the author.