Kurdish Cards And The Regime Change in Iran: Causal Pathways and Strategic Wildcards in the Zagros Frontier of the US Military Operations in Iran (2026)

This working paper applies structured foresight scenario methodology to assess the plausible trajectories following the reported CIA effort to arm Iranian Kur- dish forces (Bertrand et al., 2026). Drawing on open-source intelligence, recent kinetic and political developments along the Zagros frontier (March 2026), re- gional political economy, and conflict studies literature, three causal scenarios are constructed: ranging from an optimistic cascade collapse (Scenario 1) to a warlordist fragmentation equilibrium (Scenario 2), and a contingent liberation- front rebranding (Scenario 3). The paper includes a dedicated current intel- ligence context section integrating the Paveh strikes, the Kamyaran IRGC de- ception operation, Reza Pahlavi’s signalling toward Western Provinces, and the historical precedent of the Aryana–Jaf plan of 1979–80. For each scenario, actor objectives are assessed, causal mechanisms are formalised, and low-probability high-impact wildcard events are identified. The analysis concludes that the most probable near-term trajectory is Scenario 2, and that Scenario 3 represents the minimum necessary condition for a politically stable transition