Structural break in Italian capture fisheries production (1960–2023): evidence from a Chow test

This study analyzes a structural change in capture fisheries production in Italy during the period 1960–2023. The data come from the indicator “Capture fisheries production (metric tons)” available on the World Bank Open Data platform, which is based on official statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The historical series includes 64 annual observations. To evaluate the stability of the model parameters over time, a Chow test was applied, assuming a break point in 1984, the year in which the series reached its historical maximum. The results provide strong evidence of a structural change in the dynamics of the series. The test rejects the null hypothesis of parameter stability (F (2,60) = 237.7; p < 0.001).