Simpson's Paradox in Water Management Infrastructure and Drought Severity on the Hungarian Great Plain -- Analysis Scripts

Analysis scripts for investigating the relationship between water management infrastructure and drought severity across 2,911 subcatchments in the Hajdusagi (HAHO) region. Reveals a Simpson's paradox: the raw positive correlation between infrastructure density and Palfai drought severity (rho = 0.24) reverses within elevation strata, because infrastructure was historically placed in drought-prone lowlands. Methods include partial Spearman correlations, Kruskal-Wallis tests with Dunn's post-hoc, elevation stratification, OLS interaction models, PCA-derived infrastructure indices, Moran's I spatial autocorrelation, and SPI-12 gridded precipitation replication. Catchment delineation was performed in ArcGIS Pro 3.6 using the ArcHydro toolset.