Empirical Study III

Empirical Study III applies the Abebe Law of Tensility to the modern global economic system from 1945 to the present using contemporary macroeconomic and financial datasets. Building on the historical proxy calibrations developed in the first two studies, this analysis examines structural tension within the postwar international economic order, including the Bretton Woods system, the expansion of sovereign debt, financial globalization, and the increasing complexity of global financial markets. Using the governing relationship Φz = τVₖ, the study evaluates systemic stress as the interaction between structural economic tension and institutional integrity. Unlike earlier historical periods, the modern era provides direct macroeconomic and financial data, allowing the components of the Abebe Tensility Index to be estimated using observable indicators such as global debt ratios, market volatility measures, inflation credibility spreads, and sovereign bond market dynamics. The objective is to test whether episodes of financial instability correspond to the structural stability thresholds proposed within the Abebe Tensility framework. This study represents the first empirical application of the model using modern high-frequency economic and financial data, providing a direct test of the framework within the contemporary global financial system.