Codes and data related to the article: Renard et al. A Joint Space-Time Probabilistic Model for Agricultural Droughts, Hydrological Droughts and Fire Weather in France. NHESS.

This package contains R codes and data related to the article: B. Renard, R. Barbero, I. Goukouni, J.-P. Vidal, L. Mimeau, C. Furusho-Percot, I. García de Cortázar-Atauri, M. Aubry, T. Opitz, and D. Allard. 2026. A Joint Space-Time Probabilistic Model for Agricultural Droughts, Hydrological Droughts and Fire Weather in France. Submitted to Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. CONTENTS Data folders: data/: Observed SWI, FWI and Q data in France. data-raw/: SWI data simulated by 17 climate models over the historical ("_historical_") and future ("_rcp85_") periods. R scripts used to set up models, analyse results and prepare figures: utils.R, models.R, plots.R and sourceMe.R define functions and variables used by other scripts. 0_fitAndSimulate.R estimates the model and generates Monte-Carlo replicates, in the past and the future. 0_plotData.R creates plots showing the raw data. 1_analyzeFit.R creates plots analyzing the estimated parameters and related quantities. 1_localDistributions_TV.R creates plots illustrating the estimated time-varying distributions for each variable separately. 2_trivariate_TV.R creates plots illustrating the estimated time-varying joint distributions for the three variables. 3_ExtentDuration_TV.R creates plots illustrating the time-varying distributions of spatial extents and durations. 4_future.R creates plots illustrating future projections.