We Built a Ruler That Measures Collapse. Ukraine Was Our First Test.

We introduce the Region Stabilarity Index (RSI), a methodology that scores any geographic unit—world, country, region, city—on the same 0.0–1.0 scale. RSI enables cross-scale stability comparison and identifies non-obvious correlations between instability scores and leading indicators. Ukraine serves as our first case study, with an RSI of 0.769 (Critical band). Analysis reveals strong correlations with refugee outflow (+0.91), energy infrastructure damage (+0.88), and civilian mobility (-0.82), while disproving the hypothesis that winter severity amplifies Ukrainian instability (r=0.12).