White Paper / Preprint GCST Analysis: Winter Cycle Compression Since the Industrial Revolution Long-Term Shift and Forecast to 2100 — A Complexity-Thermodynamic Perspective

Abstract Global Complexity–Stability Theory (GCST) treats Earth's climate as a dissipative complex system, where seasonal cycles are governed by the balance between imposed forcing rate (α) and recovery capacity (γ). The stability index is where C is climatic structural complexity (feedback loops, ocean–atmosphere coupling, cryosphere dynamics). Since the Industrial Revolution (~1750–1850), anthropogenic forcing has increased α by ~15–25× (greenhouse gases, land-use change) while raising γ only ~3–5× (stronger hydrological cycle, ocean heat uptake). This has driven a slow Rate-Induced Transition, lowering G_climate from ~1.0–1.2 (pre-1850) to ~0.65–0.80 (2025), manifesting as: ● delayed winter onset ● shorter cold season duration ● reduced frequency and intensity of winter extremes ● growing structural debt in cryosphere and circulation GCST forecasts continued compression of winter cycles to 2100, with G_climate likely reaching 0.50–0.65 (baseline scenario), increasing interannual variability and risk of abrupt regime shifts.