The i-Criterion Dilemma: A Regulatory Impact Assessment of Market Displacement, Fiscal Contraction, and Criminological Risk in Amsterdam

This paper analyzes the enforcement of the proposed Amsterdam cannabis coffeeshop residency rule (i-criterium) in 2026 and its implications for public health. Using a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA), it reveals that international visitors face a 33.5% tax burden yet remain excluded from public health protections provided by 98.4% of Bibob-certified retailers. Econometric projections with σ=0.3 estimate a €488 million economic downturn and a €55 million shift toward illicit markets. The study advocates a 24-month “De-Risking Strategy” to evaluate current regulations before further restrictions, ensuring public health safeguards are not compromised.