Toward a General Law of Epistemic Degradation: Coherence Dynamics Across Macroeconomic Forecasting, Clinical Guideline Drift, and Scientific Reproducibility
Abstract
Paper III of this series established the GYORᴹ coherence framework across six domains. Paper IV tests whether cross-domain structural invariance constitutes a general law. The corpus is expanded to ten domains including macroeconomic forecast revision (GDP vintage analysis), clinical guideline drift (HRT reversal, blood pressure threshold), scientific reproducibility (OSC replication corpus), and Antarctic sea ice ensemble divergence under SSP5-8.5 (T₃, no ground truth). All ten domains pass the operator sequence falsification test (λᴹ→γᴹ→κᴹ→ρᴹ). Formal operator equations, MDI_scaled computation rules, and six explicit falsification conditions (F1–F6) are provided. The General Law of Epistemic Degradation (GLED, L1–L6) is stated as a formally falsifiable proposition with explicit boundary conditions. A Limitations section acknowledges three open vulnerabilities and specifies the path to formal mathematical derivation in Paper V. GCM Observatory Series, Paper IV. License: CC BY 4.0.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Epistemology
Ethics
and Metaphysics
Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry
Complex Systems and Dynamics
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 15 March 2026
- Language
- EN
- Document type
- Preprint