COMPARATIVE STUDY OF HOUSING BUBBLE RISKS IN EMERGING MARKETS: UZBEKISTAN, KAZAKHSTAN, AND TURKEY PERSPECTIVES

This comparative study examines housing bubble risks in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkey over the 2020–2025 period, adapting the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index framework to assess fundamental valuation gaps (price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios), real price momentum, mortgage credit expansion, and construction sector distortions. The analysis incorporates central bank monetary policy stances, real household income trajectories, and inflationary dynamics, utilizing Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) tests to detect explosive price behavior and panel fixed-effects regressions to quantify policy-income interactions in transitional emerging-market contexts.