INTRODUCTION: DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN'S EMERGING ECONOMY
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Comprehensive 2010-2025 panel ARDL, VECM, and SVAR analysis across Pakistan's national/provincial datasets reveals 0.452 long-run elasticity between Digital Transformation Index and GDP growth, generating PKR 4.52 return per PKR 1 digital investment with 67.3% quarterly error correction speed. Services demonstrate peak 0.598 fintech elasticity, manufacturing achieves 0.567 cloud infrastructure returns, while agriculture exhibits 0.634 AgriTech multiplier effects. Provincial heterogeneity manifests as Punjab-Sindh 2.3× Balochistan digital returns. Policy simulations project PKR 17.4 trillion cumulative GDP uplift (20.6% GDP) by 2030 through 3.13-4.74× fiscal multipliers. Empirical validation confirms Digital Pakistan Vision efficacy, optimal sectoral deployment sequence (fintech→cloud→agritech), and strategic 24% fiscal reallocation imperative toward spectrum auctions and rural fiber deployment. Digital transformation constitutes Pakistan's preeminent structural catalyst for upper-middle income convergence.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Digital Economy and Transformation
Economic Growth and Development
ICT Impact and Policies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Center for Management Science Research
- Publication date
- 16 March 2026
- Language
- EN