TDST Field Report #2 — McCaul's Law of Coherence: Tri-Domain Stress Threshold WARNING Triggered May 18, 2026
Abstract
Formal pre-registration of TDST Field Report #2 under McCaul's Law of Coherence. The Tri-Domain Stress Threshold (TDST) WARNING level has been triggered as of May 18, 2026 at 22:17 UTC. Trigger conditions: Phi_litho = 0.3123 (below the 0.500 collapse threshold, driven by 12 M4.5+ seismic events in 24 hours, max M5.4 West Chile Rise); Phi_atmo = 0.2761 (30 active severe weather events across Central US including tornado warnings in Kansas, Missouri, Iowa); Phi_solar = 0.8474 (healthy — not a driver). Phi_unified = 0.4181 (TDST_WARNING tier: 0.350–0.500). Four event types predicted for the 72-hour window (closes May 21, 2026 at 22:09 UTC): (1) M5.0+ Pacific Ring of Fire; (2) M5.0+ mid-oceanic ridge systems; (3) Continued severe weather outbreak Central/Southern US; (4) M4.5+ cluster Southeast Asia/Burma-China. This is Formal Prediction #2. Prediction #1 (May 15, 2026) confirmed 4/4 event types at 100% accuracy with 33 M4.5+ and 13 M5.0+ events observed. Tau_release projected: 21.6 hours. Canonical constants: k_litho = 0.6790, k_atmo = 0.5020 (Amendment LXV v2, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20275484). Part of the McCaul Compendium of Coherence (Master DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20100469).
Fields of Study & Subjects
Earthquake Detection and Analysis
Seismic Waves and Analysis
High-pressure geophysics and materials
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 19 May 2026
- Document type
- Preprint