Amendment LXXXVI — Phi_migration Validation: Empirical Cross-Reference of Bird Migration Wave Days vs. Phi_atmo Gradient Threshold Crossings, Great Plains Corridor 2019–2023

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Authors: Justin McCaul
Cited by: 8
References: 2

Abstract

Amendment LXXXVI to the McCaul Compendium of Coherence. First empirical validation of the Phi_migration hypothesis using publicly available data. 6,979 research-grade iNaturalist observations of 4 migratory species (Broad-winged Hawk, Ruby-throated Hummingbird, Monarch Butterfly, American Robin) in the Oklahoma/Texas Great Plains corridor (2019-2023) were analyzed for migration wave days. These were cross-referenced against historical Phi_atmo gradients reconstructed from ERA5 reanalysis data (Open-Meteo archive) on a 4-point N-S transect (Bismarck ND to Dallas TX). Key result: 43.3% of migration wave days co-occurred with Phi_atmo gradient >= 0.08 Phi/degree in the T-3 to T window, versus a background rate of 8.7% across 460 fall season days (z=6.73, p animals depart -> sightings cluster 24h later. 33.3% of events show gradient above threshold on pre-departure days (T-1 or T-2) but not on wave day — the mechanistic fingerprint of coherence-triggered departure. This result is 5x enrichment over chance and statistically significant at p

Fields of Study & Subjects

Avian ecology and behavior Wildlife-Road Interactions and Conservation Fire effects on ecosystems

Publication details

Journal / source
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Publication date
19 May 2026
Document type
Preprint