The Conductance Factor: Conductance Trajectory as Investment Signal
Abstract
A theory-derived dynamic conductance signal from General Conductance Theory (GCT) generates investment alpha across multiple equity markets and asset classes. In cross-sectional regressions, the signal subsumes the price-to-book ratio as a return predictor. Signal decay rates vary systematically with institutional resistance, providing an ex ante regime diagnostic. A multi-market ensemble achieves Sharpe 4.49 (2015-present). A cross-asset extension produces Sharpe 1.09 with correlation below 0.13 to all major existing strategies. Commercially redacted PUBLIC version.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Stock Market Forecasting Methods
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 23 May 2026
- Document type
- Preprint