Global breast cancer survival estimates in 2017-2021 to advance the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative

Estimating global breast cancer survival, 2017-2021 Code and data accompanying: Girardi F. et al. (2026). Global breast cancer survival estimates in 2017-2021 to advance the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative. Nature Medicine. This repository contains the R code, curated input data, and published outputs used to estimate age-standardised 5-year net survival from breast cancer for all WHO Member States using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Repository layout package/ — an R package containing curated input datasets (data/), documented data-preparation scripts (data-raw/), helper functions (R/), and exploratory data-analysis vignettes (vignettes/ and doc/):eda_bc_stage, eda_cancer_medicines, and xrt_mg_density_eda. GBCI_scripts/ — the analysis pipeline: 00_compile_*.R — assemble survival inputs and covariates eda.qmd — exploratory analysis of compiled inputs model_survival/01_fit_model.R — fit the Bayesian hierarchical model (brms + Stan back-end) model_survival/02_make_predictions.R — generate posterior draws model_survival/03a–07_*.R — diagnostics, comparisons, exports, plots GBCI_scripts/outputs/ — published outputs: data-availability summary (web_table_6.xlsx) and country-level estimates (web_table_7.xlsx). Data and code availability What is released: all R code, all publicly-redistributable input datasets (bundled in the accompanying R package), and the member-state-reviewed 2017-2021 country-level published estimates (Web Tables 6 and 7). What is not released: survival estimates submitted by Member States during the WHO country consultation, and modelled covariate intermediate estimates (radiotherapy unit density, mammography unit density, breast cancer stage at diagnosis, and breast cancer medicines availability) that have not undergone Member State review. Consequence for reproducibility: because the inputs above are not redistributable, the pipeline cannot be re-executed end-to-end from the public repository alone. Scripts that reference the restricted inputs are retained for documentation but will not run without them.