Concentrative Causality: A Theory of Resonant Transformation in Complex Systems at Bifurcation Points

Why does a specific micro-event trigger a large-scale transformation, while another, similar event does not? Existing frameworks—from Lorenz to Prigogine—explain why complex systems are sensitive to small perturbations, but leave a foundational gap: they provide no mechanism linking a particular trigger to a particular transformation scale and direction. This paper introduces Concentrative Causality to fill this gap. We propose that a trigger is not external noise, but a historically structured entity—a node of convergence of the system's own macro-past. Systemic vulnerabilities, shaped by the same path-contingent, macro-historical processes, share a common origin with the triggers that activate them. When they meet at a bifurcation point, their structural fit produces topological resonance—a relational match that determines the scale and direction of the ensuing transformation. We formalize this mechanism through the concepts of trigger profile, vulnerability profile, and positionality, demonstrating that topological resonance always occurs within a common system, thereby ruling out action at a distance. The theory is built on nine axioms, differentiated from five existing frameworks, and includes explicit falsifiability criteria. We illustrate the mechanism through the lens of the 2008 financial crisis.