The AI Capital-Infrastructure Barbell: A Supply Risk Assessment

This report presents a structured macroeconomic and supply-side risk assessment of the advanced computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure ecosystem. Shifting the analytical focus from standard demand-volatility narratives, this paper evaluates the parallel, under-priced axis of supply-side asset velocity, mapping the physical, regulatory, and geopolitical fragilities of the underlying production layers. Utilizing an empirical Likelihood × Severity framework, the risk register categorizes near-term macro drags—such as hyper-scaler capital-expenditure decoupling and structural grid interconnection bottlenecks—alongside low-probability, civilization-scale tail risks within the East Asian semiconductor supply chain. Finally, the report introduces an inverse sector exposure matrix, evaluating structural insulation profiles across macro-sectors based on leading-edge silicon dependence, logistical chokepoints, capital-market sensitivity, and demand elasticity.