The AI Private-Valuation Marks-vs-Reality Ledger (v1): a pre-registered, reproducible scoreboard for how private AI valuations survive a real public price

A reproducible, primary-sourced ledger that scores how private AI-company valuations survive contact with a real public price — not a forecast or a bubble call, but a referee layer that records a private mark and checks it against the next real repricing event. v1 captures the SpaceX IPO (priced 11 Jun 2026 at $135 / $1.77T; day-1 close 12 Jun at $160.95 / +19.2% / ~$2.11T) and resolves two pre-registered predictions: (1) the honest private→public step-up was ~1.4×, not the widely-cited 5.1× (a stale-baseline artefact), and (2) a day-1 pop, not a day-1 drop, with any real correction deferred to lock-up expiry. CoreWeave provides one fully-closed private→IPO→repricing loop; OpenAI and Anthropic remain still-private (fund N-PORT marks only, named as a limitation). The method is the author's Forecast-Scorecard machinery applied to finance: reproducible (stdlib script + full CSV), primary-sourced, motive-neutral, and pre-registered.