Wave Signals in Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons Mark Vortex Adjustment but Weakly Constrain Ionospheric Coupling

Whether waves emitted by rapidly intensifying typhoons precede intensification, record vortex adjustment, or couple into the ionosphere remains uncertain. We analyze 75 western North Pacific rapid-intensification events using Fengyun infrared imagery, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder stratospheric gravity-wave variance, ERA5 diagnostics, and global ionosphere maps. The ERA5 omega momentum proxy increases from 24 h before onset to onset by 0.177 (Wilcoxon $p=0.00416$), consistent with inertia-gravity-wave dispersion of ageostrophic energy. Yet pre-onset gravity-wave and Vortex Rossby Wave indices have weak future-intensification skill (0.538 and 0.516; no-skill baseline, 0.5). A separate adjustment index better flags subsequent weakening (0.737). Broad total-electron-content anomalies peak later but are not predicted by stratospheric wave variance. Because global ionosphere maps cannot verify coherent electron-content bands or lag-implied phase speeds, they support only filtered coupling. Typhoon wave signals therefore mark conditional storm adjustment, not deterministic intensification precursors.