The Unified Field of Spreads: The China-U.S. Yield Spread as a Regime Variable in Global Asset Pricing—On the Hierarchical Structure of Institutional Interfaces and Supplements to Interest Rate Parity, the Triffin Dilemma, and Related Theories
Abstract
After being identified as a cross-market pricing factor (Tang, 2026), the deeper pricing attributes of the China-U.S. yield spread have yet to be fully revealed. This paper proposes and verifies that the China-U.S. yield spread is not an ordinary pricing factor but a "regime variable" for global assets—its sign and extreme values determine the pricing regime under which gold, crude oil, Chinese government bonds, and U.S. Treasuries operate. The core findings of this paper include: (1) The spread's pricing of gold is "regime-based"—deep inversion (
Fields of Study & Subjects
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 18 August 2026
- Language
- EN
- Document type
- Preprint