Sealed Before the Event: A Publicly Verifiable, Bitcoin-Anchored Forecast Record — Protocol and 92 Graded Outcomes Across Launch Mission Assurance, Strategic Warning, and Consular Intelligence

v9.2: adds four signature data plates (the record on a Natural Earth world map, the master seal→event chronology, the law constellation, and the calibration verdict — misses shown at full weight throughout) + the elevated light-theme figure set. The paper PDF is now the authored-vector, screenshot-free edition: every figure is an author-generated vector plate; interface captures of the live instrument have been removed from the archival record, each replaced by a pointer to its live, recomputing counterpart. Counts unchanged: 92 graded / 103 sealed records / Brier 0.0958. Book notice. This record is also published in expanded form as the two-volume book The Forecasting Protocol — Volume I: The Protocol & The Laws (ISBN 979-8-9969481-0-9) · Volume II: The Laws in Action (ISBN 979-8-9969481-4-7) — Vijay Jyotish LLC, 2026, in press. The free PDF edition (ISBN 979-8-9969481-2-3 / -6-1) will be available at jyotishintelligence.com. Version note — figure supplement. This version adds a publication-grade, light-theme vector figure set (17 SVG plates: calibration / reliability, the Murphy and Savage scoring decompositions, the outcome-space partition and capped-multiplier cascade, the master-formula 1-in-N derivation, Information Yield, SITA, the luck test, the peer / form-of-proof and audit-surface matrices, and the full graded ledger) prepared for print and peer-reviewed journal submission. The figures are author-generated (CC-BY 4.0) and render the same public artifacts the online paper's live figures recompute from; no reported number changes. The previous full-figure PDF of record is retained in this version. Public forecasting suffers a verification gap: claims of foresight are typically asserted after the fact, graded by their author against shifting standards, or hosted on platforms whose question formats exclude high-specificity calls. This paper documents a protocol that closes the verifiable half of that gap, and the record produced by running it publicly since 2023: 92 graded forecasts — 23 in launch mission assurance across five competing providers, 69 in strategic and geopolitical warning — each sealed before its event (SHA-256 over the verbatim claim, timestamped by a public platform, anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps), graded against externally recorded outcomes under a published rubric, with misses retained at full weight and the complete grading ledger frozen and independently recomputable. Pre-specified analyses are reported: a clustered significance test (51 of 68 independent events strict-successful; exact binomial p = 2.2×10−5 at a coin-flip floor per event; break-even luck-prior ≥ 0.65), a signal-detection decomposition (zero false all-clears, zero missed catastrophes; the only errors are two severity overcalls, both self-penalized), a 23-row dose-response table with its two gradient-breakers shown in place, provider-neutrality and natural-experiment results, and, on the warning desk, lead-time and specificity structure for which no official-channel comparator existed in most cases. Alternative explanations — fabrication, insider information, self-fulfilling prophecy, Barnum vagueness — are addressed by construction or by natural experiment; the strongest surviving mundane hypothesis is named, and the evidence bearing on it is stated together with what cannot discriminate it. The generating method is proprietary and deliberately undisclosed; the paper evaluates the record as a black box. The aggregate Brier score (0.0958) is conceded to be matched by a base-rate baseline on this high-confidence sample; the record's information lives in specificity, lead time, and the intensity structure documented here. All data, seals, and analyses are public and recomputable without trusting the author. Version 4 — the journal manuscript. Identical to v3 with every figure re-captured as a fully original work: incidental licensed stock imagery (decorative visual anchors) removed from the captures, so the entire document is redistributable under CC-BY without third-party rights. This is the version submitted for peer review. Version 3 — the full-figure manuscript. This version's PDF embeds high-resolution static captures of all 27 exhibits — the operational map (hero) plus 25 figures and Table 1 — interleaved at their section positions with typeset captions, each a capture of the corresponding LIVE component in the online edition. The online edition remains the canonical figure record: there, every figure is interactive and recomputes from the public artifacts, so a reader re-runs the analyses rather than viewing them. Version 2 — the full-data edition. The paper's canonical rendering is now published at https://jyotishintelligence.com/essays/sealed-before-the-event-the-paper with the record's interactive operational map as the hero exhibit and 25 live figures + 1 table — the reliability diagram, Murphy decomposition, the clustered luck test, the signal-detection matrix, the 23-row mechanism ledger, the dose-response ladder, the provider-neutrality matrix, the Axiom-4 and Falcon-9 natural experiments, the multi-call sittings, the comparator-absence register, the lead×specificity frontier, the Information-Yield scale, the SITA decision-value profile, the miss anatomy, the anti-con curve, and the Feynman loop. Every figure is a live component that RECOMPUTES from the same public artifacts the paper cites: a reader does not view the analyses, they re-run them. The attached PDF is the prose record; the linked edition is the figure record. Prose additions in v2: the Information-Yield and SITA per-call metrics are now specified in §4.6; author of record: Vijay Jyotish (ORCID 0009-0009-0832-9998). Full text also published at https://jyotishintelligence.com/essays/sealed-before-the-event-the-paper · Data and verifier: https://jyotishintelligence.com/api/v1 · github.com/vijayjyotish/verify-jyotint