Warsh–PSTA Architecture (V1.3): A Macro-Semiotic Application of the Peircean Semiotic Trajectory Architecture

This paper takes as its starting point a simple observation: markets do not respond to signals. They respond to interpretations of signals. The difference matters more than it might first appear. The manuscript applies the Peircean Semiotic Trajectory Architecture (PSTA v1.2) to what the author calls the Warsh Triangle — the interaction among oil, yields, and policy communication. The central argument is that this triangle is best understood not as a mechanical system but as the observable surface of a deeper interpretive process. The symbolic states used throughout the paper (F, I, D, O⁻, O⁺, O″) describe how interpretations evolve, stabilize, and sometimes harden into pathology. The pathological trajectory D → O⁻ → O″ and the recovery trajectory D → F → I → O⁺ are the two canonical patterns traced. The paper does not claim that oil mechanically determines yields. It does not claim that policy silence necessarily produces instability. It does not claim that the symbolic states described have been empirically validated. What it offers is a framework — one way of seeing — for analyzing how observable signals become meaningful, how those meanings settle into habits, and how those habits may drift toward either adaptive or pathological regimes. The manuscript is written in a reflective, first-person voice and is part of a larger research program. It builds on earlier work in the PSTA Series and will be followed by further applications.