Conditional Predictability in International Conflict: Game Theory, Strategic Uncertainty and International Law: A structured method for forecasting without determinism

This preprint examines conditional predictability as a methodological framework for the analysis of contemporary international conflicts. Rather than assuming that war and strategic behavior can be predicted deterministically, the study proposes the identification of conditional tendencies based on strategic incentives, interdependent decisions, incomplete information, legal constraints, and continuously changing environments. By integrating Game Theory, International Law, and strategic analysis, the paper develops a framework for comparing possible scenarios, making analytical assumptions explicit, revising hypotheses as conditions evolve, and evaluating the influence of legal and institutional costs on strategic choices. The study argues that conditional predictability provides a disciplined approach to uncertainty and can support strategic assessments, risk analysis, crisis management, and decision-making without reducing complex conflicts to deterministic forecasts.