Macroeconomic factors of industrial growth in the Republic of Kazakhstan: analysis of interrelations and tendencies

In the context of unstable foreign economic conditions, geopolitical challenges and ongoing structural transformations in the economy of Kazakhstan, a comprehensive analysis of the factors determining industrial growth and the sustainability of the manufacturing sector is of particular importance. The purpose of the study is to identify the nature, orientation and strength of the relationships between industrial production and key macroeconomic determinants, which allows us to identify priority areas of industrial policy. The empirical base of the study is based on official statistical data for 2000-2024, which ensures the representativeness and reliability of the conclusions. The methodological approach is based on correlation and trend analysis, as well as SWOT and PEST diagnostics, which made it possible to cover both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the impact of investment, export, labor and institutional components on industrial dynamics. The results of the study showed that government subsidies (correlation coefficient 0.7592), wage levels (0.7126), gross output of goods and services (0.6587) and gross accumulation (0.6552) have the greatest positive impact on industrial production. Net exports have a moderate positive correlation (0.6463), while investments in fixed assets show a weak current correlation (0.092), indicating a likely delayed effect. The SWOT analysis revealed the strengths of the industry, including a rich resource base and significant government support, as well as weaknesses related to resource dependence and technological lag. The PEST analysis confirmed the high sensitivity of the industrial sector to price and currency instability. The conclusion is made about the need for a comprehensive application of investment, fiscal and institutional instruments aimed at stimulating sustainable industrialization, accelerating technological renewal and strengthening the international competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s industry.