Idoneidad climática de tres especies de vertebrados invasores en Áreas Naturales Protegidas en el noreste de México

Protected Natural Areas (PNAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but they face multiple threats, particularly biological invasions driven by ongoing, intense human activities. The northeastern region of Mexico, covering Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas, has high biodiversity and endemism, with more than 80 PNAs. However, this region has recently recorded the presence of invasive exotic species (IES) with strong potential for spread. This paper analyzes biological invasions by assessing the current and future climatic suitability of three invasive exotic species: collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto), feral pig (Sus scrofa), and Barbary sheep (Ammotragus lervia) in PNAs of northeastern Mexico. The goal is to identify high-risk invasion areas and to inform the design of preventive management and conservation strategies. Using the MaxEnt program to model the ecological niche of these species, potential geographic distribution areas were identified, and the highest-risk zones within the PNAs were outlined. The potential distribution of the three species was estimated to cover approximately 44% of the area of these conservation zones; the most vulnerable areas are Maderas del Carmen, Ocampo, and Cumbres de Monterrey. The obtained models indicate an increased distribution of A. lervia and S. scrofa domesticus under the future climate scenario, whereas the distribution of S. decaocto shows a slight decrease. This study recommends the regional implementation of a monitoring and surveillance strategy for invasive exotic species to guide management actions that interrupt their dispersal and reduce their impacts on native flora and fauna in northeastern Mexico.