Violent Conflict Exposure and Household Poverty: What Can We Learn from Panel Data?

ABSTRACT There has been a significant surge in violent conflict across Africa and other parts of the world. This increase correlates with heightened adverse economic, social, and health-related consequences, particularly pronounced in developing nations. Nigeria, amidst its historical backdrop of conflict, has observed a notable escalation in violent conflict across regions. The growing exposure of Nigerians to violent conflict and the need to understand its overall impact on well-being are the motivations for this research. This article focuses on two key questions: First, does recent exposure to conflict affect household income and poverty levels? Second, does long-term exposure to conflict have a cumulative effect on welfare? To address these questions, a fixed-effects strategy with panel data from 2010 to 2018 is used. The study also controls for time-varying community-level factors to minimize potential bias in estimates. The findings suggest that conflict exposure reduces household income and increases both poverty severity and the poverty gap. Additionally, the article observes negative effects of accumulated conflict exposure on welfare indicators. These results suggest a critical need for African governments to identify current and past conflict zones and to prioritize targeted poverty alleviation programs in these communities.