Hot spots and their climatic, environmental, and social determinants in the Cuiabá River Headwaters Environmental Protection Area, Brazil

The State Environmental Protection Area of the Cuiabá River Headwaters, located in the Cerrado biome, experiences recurrent wildfires that threaten its ecological integrity. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal dynamics of fire activity between 2010 and 2019, focusing on the relationship between climatic variables and the occurrence of hot spots. Data on hot spots were sourced from the fire database of the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, while climate variables — precipitation, air temperature, and relative humidity — were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology database. Monthly fire activity was statistically correlated with climatic conditions using Spearman’s correlation, and the number of consecutive dry days was calculated to assess drought severity. The results revealed a significant increase in hot spot density during the dry season (August to October), strongly associated with low precipitation, high temperatures, and critically low relative humidity. Among these variables, relative humidity showed the strongest and most consistent correlation with fire incidence, evidencing its role as an immediate meteorological trigger. Spatial analysis using kernel density estimation confirmed the concentration of fire activity in areas with recent land use changes, particularly agricultural expansion zones. These findings highlight the role of compound drought–fire dynamics in shaping fire regimes in the Cerrado and support the adoption of climate-informed fire management strategies to reduce wildfire risk in protected areas.